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post #1 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-23-2016, 12:35 AM Thread Starter
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investing forecast firm rates trump presidency as top 10 risk to global economy

For April The Economist's business intelligence and forecasting service, used by investors and business, ranked a Trump presidency in the top ten threats to the global economy. To see the entire list and rankings along with the reasons for each rating see the linked articles.

Country, industry and risk analysis from The Economist Intelligence Unit
Top Ten Risks to the Global Economy
Risks of a Donald Trump presidency

1) Global risk intensity|High probability, Very high impact
China experiences a hard landing

2) Global risk intensity|High probability, High impact
Russia's interventions in Ukraine and Syria precede a new "cold war"

3) Global risk intensity|High probability, High impact
Currency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis

4) Global risk intensity|Moderate probability, Very high impact
Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture

5) Global risk intensity|Moderate probability, Very high impact
"Grexit" is followed by a euro zone break-up

6) Global risk intensity|Moderate probability, High impact
Donald Trump wins the US presidential election

7) Global risk intensity|Moderate probability, High impact
The rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilises the global economy

8) Global risk intensity|Low probability, High impact
The UK votes to leave the EU

9)Global risk intensity|Low probability, High impact
Chinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea

10)Global risk intensity|Very low probability, High impact
A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock

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post #2 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-23-2016, 05:08 PM
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Good, bring it on.

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post #3 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-23-2016, 06:33 PM
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He can't do any worse than the muslim terrorist we have now....
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post #4 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-23-2016, 06:35 PM Thread Starter
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The unmentioned fact is that the US has the largest economy in the world, so a change of say, 3% in it's performance has a much larger impact on the global economy and investors, than a 3% change to say the Luxembourg economy.

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He can't do any worse than the Muslim terrorist we have now....
Joe, do you believe the statement you made above is true? That your currently sitting president is actually a Muslim and also an ISIS/Al Qaeda member or sympathizer? Just curious. Hoping for some clarification as to your beliefs.

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post #5 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-23-2016, 07:03 PM
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The unmentioned fact is that the US has the largest economy in the world, so a change of say, 3% in it's performance has a much larger impact on the global economy and investors, than a 3% change to say the Luxembourg economy.

With any luck Canada will be the first country to go down the ****ter.

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post #6 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-23-2016, 07:10 PM
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The unmentioned fact is that the US has the largest economy in the world, so a change of say, 3% in it's performance has a much larger impact on the global economy and investors, than a 3% change to say the Luxembourg economy.


Joe, do you believe the statement you made above is true? That your currently sitting president is actually a Muslim and also an ISIS/Al Qaeda member or sympathizer? Just curious. Hoping for some clarification as to your beliefs.

I believe the POS is doing everything he can to collapse our country.

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post #7 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-23-2016, 07:12 PM Thread Starter
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With any luck Canada will be the first country to go down the ****ter.
If the US economic performance declines, so does Canadian economic performance. The two economies are tied tightly together. More tightly than whoever happens to be elected to office on either side of the border. Canada is the largest single market for US produced goods and services and also the US is Canada's largest export market.

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post #8 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-23-2016, 08:03 PM
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If the US economic performance declines, so does Canadian economic performance. The two economies are tied tightly together. More tightly than whoever happens to be elected to office on either side of the border. Canada is the largest single market for US produced goods and services and also the US is Canada's largest export market.
Aren't you guys in a recession up there? Economy not doing so hot?
You've got little room talking about anyone down here.

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post #9 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 07:52 AM
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too big to fail


no sometimes things have to get bad or fail for the sake of the future. the current standard is to fk the future and just kick the can farther down the road with unsupported fiat currency, and an economy based on borrowed money that doesn't exist.
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post #10 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 08:44 AM
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He can't do any worse than the muslim terrorist we have now....
Says the 50 y.o. retiree who spends his days in sunny southern California finding new sandwich shops to sample. The horror Obama's unleashed is just beyond description, BWHAHAHAHA!
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post #11 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 08:45 AM
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Good, bring it on.
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post #12 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 08:46 AM
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I believe the POS is doing everything he can to collapse our country.
Can you provide an example?
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post #13 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 08:51 AM
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too big to fail


no sometimes things have to get bad or fail for the sake of the future. the current standard is to fk the future and just kick the can farther down the road with unsupported fiat currency, and an economy based on borrowed money that doesn't exist.
Well if debt is your issue, Trump should be the last guy on your list. He wants to cut corporate taxes and taxes on the rich. He wants to increase the size and scope of the military and bomb anyone who looks at him crosseyed, he wants to create a gestapo to run around the country depleting our fields of workers and causing the farmers goods to rot in the fields just like what happened when Alabama thought kicking out the Mexicans was a good idea. He wants to build a big wall with his name emblazoned on it, that his followers are foolish enough to believe that someone else will pay for.
I have to give him credit. He basically admitted that his voters were so gullible that he could shoot someone in the face and would never lose a vote. Nazi Germany, welcome back!
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post #14 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 08:56 AM
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reducing taxes on citizens is not a problem. spending is a problem. the entire government is so bloated that for any dollar collected for a reasonable end purpose, half of it is used to fund the government itself instead of the end goal.
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post #15 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 09:09 AM
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Well if debt is your issue, Trump should be the last guy on your list. He wants to cut corporate taxes and taxes on the rich.
his tax plan actually cuts more for the poor and less for the rich than Cruz's tax plan.

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He wants to increase the size and scope of the military and bomb anyone who looks at him crosseyed, he wants to create a gestapo to run around the country depleting our fields of workers and causing the farmers goods to rot in the fields just like what happened when Alabama thought kicking out the Mexicans was a good idea. He wants to build a big wall with his name emblazoned on it, that his followers are foolish enough to believe that someone else will pay for.
that's a pretty dramatic interpretation

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I have to give him credit. He basically admitted that his voters were so gullible that he could shoot someone in the face and would never lose a vote. Nazi Germany, welcome back!
Nazi Germany? Bernie Sanders is the one who blamed all the middle easts problems on the jews, how's that for Nazi Germany.

most of the soundbites that the media is repeating from Trump are just blow hard nonsense for the same of drumming up media attention and getting free advertising. He is the anti-politician so you can't really gauge him the same way as the rest, except by looking at what they do and not what they say. Politicians are silver tongued snakes, even Kasiche who has a following from conservative Christians has been filmed behaving in a manner much counter to his public image. Hillary is just a hell spawn. Bernie is probably the fastest and surest route to the US collapse. Cruz is "conservative" but still all for big government. and Trump puts on a show, but if you listen to the testimonials of people who actually have had to deal with him in personal life and business life, etc he's actually probably one of the nicer more caring and grounded people running. What we see in the media and on twitter seems like a pretty well executed strategy. Trump doesn't hate immigrants or anyone based on race. illegal is not a race, islam is not a race, and profiling isn't hate. its statistical analysis.

I was perfectly happy to ignore this baiting thread, but since a bunch of people posted I figured why not toss out some keyboard vomit also.
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post #16 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 09:14 AM
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reducing taxes on citizens is not a problem. spending is a problem. the entire government is so bloated that for any dollar collected for a reasonable end purpose, half of it is used to fund the government itself instead of the end goal.
Before you try to solve a problem, you need to understand it.

Most of gov't spending is mandatory, IOW, unless Congress actually changes the law, there is nothing a president can do about it. The mandatory spending includes the heavy hitters like SS, Medicare, and Medicaid. Even if Trump could change it, he's already stated he will not cut these benefits to even the highest earners.
Discretionary spending is where a president could make changes. The vast majority of discretionary spending is military. Trump wants to increase that.
As to half the money being spent on bloat, about 6% goes to general gov't.

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post #17 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 09:36 AM
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his tax plan actually cuts more for the poor and less for the rich than Cruz's tax plan.
As Lindsey Graham said, one is poison, the other a gun shot to the head...right before he endorsed poison.

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that's a pretty dramatic interpretation
I thought I put his statments rather matter of factly. He's the one who says these things with a flare for the dramatic.

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Nazi Germany? Bernie Sanders is the one who blamed all the middle easts problems on the jews, how's that for Nazi Germany.
There's a difference between disagreeing with the policies of a foreign country...even an ally, and inciting violence among your own citizens.

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most of the soundbites that the media is repeating from Trump are just blow hard nonsense for the same of drumming up media attention and getting free advertising.
Perhaps, but fascist demagoguery isn't the kind of thing that should get people motivated. If they know anything about history, they should be running from this guy as fast as their feet will carry them.

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He is the anti-politician so you can't really gauge him the same way as the rest,
What makes him anti-poltician. He's promising you everything and you're falling for it. Much the same way Bernie supporters do. People like Clinton and Kasich have a hard time because they don't promise the moon and they're the ones labeled as "establishment politicians." Gotta love the irony.


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Politicians are silver tongued snakes, even Kasiche who has a following from conservative Christians has been filmed behaving in a manner much counter to his public image.
Can you elaborate?

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Hillary is just a hell spawn.
Her mannerisms don't do much for me either, but she is smarter than the rest of them combined.

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but if you listen to the testimonials of people who actually have had to deal with him in personal life and business life, etc he's actually probably one of the nicer more caring and grounded people running.
He's a used car salesman. They're all very nice until they get you in the hot seat.

Take a look at his Trump University. He conned people out of tens of thousands of dollars for links to Zillow and mortgage underwriters. Most of the products he touts are not his, like Trump steaks. See if you can buy one sometime.

I will give him credit, in his field of real estate he's been successful, but being a good private contractor does not give one the skills or temperament to govern a large, diverse group of people. This is America not corporate America; he can't just run around firing people who disagree with him.
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post #18 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 09:39 AM
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Most of gov't spending is mandatory, IOW, unless Congress actually changes the law, there is nothing a president can do about it.
which is why all this focus on the president for most stuff is a misguided waste of time end energy. the presidents most influential role is foreign relations and appointment of supreme court justices. Otherwise most of the presidents influence is just a general guide and direction, secret deal making and veto power.

what is it. 2/3 of the rep seats are up for election this year? and all we here about is this one seat in an oval office. its a big distraction.
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post #19 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 09:47 AM
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There's a difference between disagreeing with the policies of a foreign country...even an ally, and inciting violence among your own citizens.
you seem to be following the medias lead on this instead of first hand and video evidence from unaffiliated people (the protesters are not credible sources)

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What makes him anti-poltician. He's promising you everything and you're falling for it. Much the same way Bernie supporters do. People like Clinton and Kasich have a hard time because they don't promise the moon and they're the ones labeled as "establishment politicians." Gotta love the irony.
hasn't promised me ****, I want him to break the system so that we can get rid of the 2 party monopoly and enough of the country will actually vote with reason instead of based on party affiliation.

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Her mannerisms don't do much for me either, but she is smarter than the rest of them combined.
intelligent with an evil narcissistic personality and a history of dead bodies (before Benghazi), ethics violations, and an obvious disdain for anyone that isn't herself is not someone to put in power.

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he can't just run around firing people who disagree with him.
Obama did a nice job of forcing people out who didn't agree with him, especially Generals.

pretty much no matter who gets elected we are fkd. its like spinning the wheel of misfortune, pick how you want to die.
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post #20 of 73 (permalink) Old 03-24-2016, 10:43 AM
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you seem to be following the medias lead on this instead of first hand and video evidence from unaffiliated people (the protesters are not credible sources)
The media has cameras rolling when Trump says the things he does. There is no conspiracy, it's simply things that Trump says, like wanting to hit people and paying the legal bills for those who will.
Trump appears to have you believing that reporting is evil. It's what fascists do. They prefer to have no one checking up on them.

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hasn't promised me ****, I want him to break the system so that we can get rid of the 2 party monopoly and enough of the country will actually vote with reason instead of based on party affiliation.
He's promised to spend more to protect you, cut your taxes, kick out those not like you, guarantee your retirement benefits and so on. Simultaneously, he's promised you to eliminate debt and win win win
If your boss/landlord told you he was going to cut your pay and increase your rent, you'd not be happy. When Trump tells you the same thing his followers hold up signs and chant like zombies.

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intelligent with an evil narcissistic personality and a history of dead bodies (before Benghazi), ethics violations, and an obvious disdain for anyone that isn't herself is not someone to put in power.
Talk about being media driven. Did it ever occur to you that if anything you just said was true, she'd be in prison not running for president? Her husband couldn't get away with a blowjob and you've been programmed to believe that she's some kind of Jeffery Dahmer that no one can catch.

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Obama did a nice job of forcing people out who didn't agree with him, especially Generals.
They forced themselves out by their actions, not because of a policy disagreement.

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pretty much no matter who gets elected we are fkd. its like spinning the wheel of misfortune, pick how you want to die.
Things must be pretty bad where you are. From where I'm sitting, after our last debacle with Republicans we lost thosands of young people to war, had tens of thousands maimed in same, got hit by a massive terrorist attack, and undertook the Great Depression part II.
I was pretty much convinced after that disastrous administration, the Republican brand would be toast. After all, even with a Congress blocking nearly everything Obama tried to do, the economy still managed to rebound, deficits are way down from what Bush handed Obama, very minimal loss of life due to military engagements, stock market's doubled, gas has been cut in half, interest rates are at historic lows, car sales have skyrocketed as have home sales. And this says nothing about the tens of millions who are now able to afford healthcare.
But alas, I failed to account for America's racist leanings and severe dementia.
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